Nexilist Notebook

Archive for May, 2008

Why Smart People Do Stupid Things

11th May 2008


There have a been a lot of stories lately from Ted Haggard to Eliot Spitzer that beg the question of why some very smart and capable people do some very stupid things. I have been thinking about this and I decided that some of my recent research on psychology can shed light on this question.

1) Paradoxical effect: There is a paradoxical effect when someone tries not to think about something. If you tell someone not to think about a white elephant, part of their mind starts monitoring the subject of their thoughts to see if white elephant thoughts occur. If they do this on a regular basis, they can keep thoughts of white elephants to a minimum but every now and then, a white elephant thought will spontaneously pop up.

2) Extrinsic and Intrinsic motivation: You may be extrinsically motivated by something such as ideology and public scrutiny to banish unwanted thoughts or you may be intrinsically motivated by your own deep feelings to banish unwanted thoughts.

3) Extrinsic motivation and Ego Depletion: If you resist unwanted thoughts out of extrinsic motivation, then you will have trouble keeping them away if your ego becomes depleted by exerting effort to adhere to extrinsic motivations.

4) Intrinsic motivation and unconscious goal seeking: If the thoughts that you seek to banish are actually in line with intrinsic motivation, then there may be unconscious processes going on that are driving you in the direction of those consciously banished thoughts.

5) Priming effect: When we encounter an external reminder or experience a memory or thought that relates to a goal, either conscious or unconscious, we are more likely to seek that goal.

6) Out of the public eye: If we have worn out our will power on extrinsic motivations, and have been avoiding an intrinsically desirable thought, that thought will come into our mind unbidden. If we are out of the public eye and in a position to act upon that hidden desire, the odds are we will be tempted and might succumb to acting on that thought.

7) Smart people do stupid things: And so, we may find ourselves doing that very thing that we publicly denounced and consciously tried to avoid, much to our surprise and horror.

Then all that is left is for the fulfillment of our hidden desires to become public knowledge. And people are left shaking their heads and saying “How could he be that stupid?” The answer lies in the way the human mind deals with “I should” and “I want”.

Posted in Current Events, Psychology | No Comments »

Pain at the Pump?

5th May 2008

Those pesky economic bubbles just seem to keep popping up. Then they pop. Things are calm for a little while and then another bubble comes along. There is all this money that wants a home and a “good” rate of return. Now commodities like foods and oil are bubbling.

There is a government commission called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that is supposed to regulate investment in commodities so that speculators who neither produce nor consume don’t come along and make the prices go crazy. From the US Commodity Exchange Act (CEA)– “Excessive speculation in any commodity under contrasts of sale of such commodities for future deliver…causing sudden or unreasonable fluctuations or unwarranted changes in the prices of such commodity, is an undue and unnecessary burden on interstate commerce in such commodity.” The CEA directs the CFTC to establish such trading limits “as the Commission finds are necessary to diminish, eliminate, or prevent such burden.” Obviously they are not doing their job.
Unfortunately, this commission is a little too friendly with the industry it is supposed to be regulating.

The explosion of “over the counter” futures investment vehicles and trading methods has left any serious regulation far behind. They are exempt from CFTC by a provision insert into legislation by Enron and other large energy companies. (Gone but not forgotten!)

In addition to oil, basic foods such as rice, wheat and corn are being hammered by price increases of up to 100% in the last year driven by rampant speculation.. People can’t eat and commerce is grinding to halt while the speculators are having a ball (and making a lot of money!)

Now food riots are breaking out all over the world. When a family in the third world is spending half their income on food and the food prices double, there is no money left for fuel, medicine, rent, etc. Unless the US and other governments steps in and reasserts regulation of the commodities markets, this mess could bring down the world economy. Worse yet, a lot of people will suffer and some will die to feed the greed of these speculators.

Posted in Current Events, Politics | No Comments »