Nexilist Notebook

There is a lot of discussion about the influence that Israel may have on US foreign policy and all the military aid that the US gives Israel.

There is a story from the Bible about Samson who was chained to pillars in the palace of his enemies after being robbed of his legendary strength. When his strength returned, he pulled the temple down killing himself and his tormenters.

When the Jews rebelled against the Romans in 70 AD, Rome destroyed Jerusalem, crushed the Jewish resistance and pursued the remanants to the mesa of Masada. There the Romans lay siege for months until they were able to build a ramp up the side of the mesa. When they finally breached the defenses on top of the mesa, they found that all of the rebels had committed suicide rather than be captured. A rallying cry for the Israeli army is “Never Again” which refers to what happened at Masada.

I am sure that every new US president receives a visit from an Israeli official who says something like “You can support us or leave to our fate but if they come for us and all hope is gone, we will turn the Middle East into a radioactive wasteland until the end of time.”

Since it is generally accepted that Israel has about 200 nulcear bombs and the planes to deliver them, the new president can only reply, “What do you want?”

So much of diplomacy is a game of finding the right words that are acceptable to both sides who might not completely agree. This process sometimes goes astray.

Recently, the Bush administration was trying to find a compromise between their position of never setting a specific timetable for withdrawal from Iraq and the Iraqi demand for just such a time table. This has been a major sticking point (not the only one) in the drafting of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the US and Iraq to replace the expiring UN mandate for the US presence in Iraq. The Bush administration has been pressing hard for a SOFA by the end of July. The Iraqis have been understanably reluctant to sign any long term agreement with an administration that will be gone in a few months.

Some genius in our state department finally came up with a phrase that was apparently acceptable to both sides, the now famous “time horizon for aspirational goals”. Isn’t that a great bit of polysyllabic garbage! I guess the intent was to craft a linguistuc Rorschach test that would be seen differently by different people. For a day or two, it seemed that the Bush people and the Iraqis were on the same page (even though it was not clear which page that was) but then came the al Malaki interview in the German paper, Der Spiegel.

Al Malaki remarked that he thought that the Obama proposal for a US withdrawal in 16 months was in the right range. He was then careful to say that he did not mean to endorse Obama as a presidential candidate. The next day, the Iraqis released a statement that al Malaki had been mistranslated and misunderstood. The problem with that is that al Malaki’s own translator provided Der Spiegel with the translation. Then the US said that there was not going to be a firm date for withdrawal and that conditions on the ground would determine when we withdrew. In other words, the same position that Bush has always taken. Following that, a senior Iraqi official stated that a firm date was important to the Iraqis. So much for the magic of the State department wordsmith.

I don’t like to be cynical (well, that’s not completely true) but I have to admit that this whole oil price rollercoaster is making me suspicious. If you were in a high government position and you wanted to make a lot of money quickly, is there some way that you could exploit your position? How about this? The oil market is nervous so you make a belligerent public statement about an enemy in the Middle East. The price of oil jumps $8 a barrel. You have used the low margin of $8 a barrel on a futures contract to tie up some oil futures. When the price spikes, you sell and double your money. Then you make a concilliatory statement and the price comes back down. Then your enemy does the same thing. And they double their money. Then someone in the US state department does the same thing and they double their money. Maybe I am just paranoid but I have to wonder…..

One of the problems that I have in understanding many religious traditions is that such a great gulf of time separates their origins from our present time. The people who witnessed the birth of an ancient religion saw the world very differently than we do. It is difficult for us to understand how they might have experienced the events that have come down to us through the centuries.

The idea that Jesus served as the scapegoat for the whole human race is the center piece of Christianity. What did this mean to the Jewish people of the 1st century?

The scapegoat was a Jewish tradition where they symbolically put the sins of the community on a young and innocent goat or lamb. Then they sacrificed the animal and offered the blood to Yahweh to wash away their sins. The story told in the Christian bible is that Jesus voluntarily went to the cross in sacrifice so his blood would atone for our sins.

In the early part of the 4th century CE, Arius, a presbyter from Alexandria promoted the idea that Jesus was human and was inhabited by the spirit of God. The spirit of God left him as he hung on the cross and he died as a man to atone for our sins. One of the things that Jesus is reported to have said on the cross is “Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani” which is Aramaic for “My God, My God, why hast thou forsaken me.” This makes sense in the context of the scapegoat.

Arianism Read the rest of this entry »

We hear a lot these days about the fabulous growth of China, booming, bustling, shipping products to the world and building up a huge trade imbalance with the US. We see images of skyscrapers, factories, stock exchanges, restaurants, theaters, a vital middle class. We are told that they are beating us as our own game of manufacture and trade so we have to work harder, take wage cuts, etc. They are hosting the Olympics in 2008 and Beijing is getting a face lift for the occasion. We are warned that they are building their military machine and will be challenging our status as the only superpower soon.

What is not being so loudly trumpeted in the media is the downside of the Chinese Miracle. 17 out of the 20 most polluted cities in the world are in China. They are building coal fired power plants at the rate of two a week and the pollutions sometimes reaches all the way to our West Coast. Hundreds of thousands of people are dying each year because of pollution.

For every Chinese rising to the middle class there are tens of thousands still mired in poverty. In one recent year, millions of people took part in 80,000 protests, many of which turned violent. Money which should have gone to villagers in the countryside for rice is being diverted by the provincial governors for development projects, many of which drive the peasants off the land. People are being enslaved in the countryside to work in the mines. Corruption is rampant in the government and the people are well aware of it.

The infanticide of female babies because of the one child per family law has led to an imbalance in the birth rates of male and female children resulting in tens of thousands of poor men who have no hope of a wife and family. The teeming millions working the factories have little to no protection from job hazards, abuse, and exploitation.

The air pollution in Beijing is terrible and even shutting down manufacture and most transportation in Beijing for the Olympics may not do much to reduce it. One million peasants have been brought in to clean up Beijing for the Olympics and their working conditions are terrible.

The recent earthquake that devastated China brought demonstrations by distraught parents bitter about the substandard building practices that had contributed to the deaths of many children. And many of the dams that are damaged and threatening to burst were built over objections that they were sited in a seismically active area. The government is under heavy and much deserved criticism for these failures to protect the welfare of the people.

Mao came to power because he promised the peasants that they would have enough to eat and would be treated fairly. The current rulers of China could care less about ideology and they have broken Mao’s pledge to the peasants. China is going to have to pay some very heavy dues before they because a stable and prosperous society.

There have a been a lot of stories lately from Ted Haggard to Eliot Spitzer that beg the question of why some very smart and capable people do some very stupid things. I have been thinking about this and I decided that some of my recent research on psychology can shed light on this question.

1) Paradoxical effect: There is a paradoxical effect when someone tries not to think about something. If you tell someone not to think about a white elephant, part of their mind starts monitoring the subject of their thoughts to see if white elephant thoughts occur. If they do this on a regular basis, they can keep thoughts of white elephants to a minimum but every now and then, a white elephant thought will spontaneously pop up.

2) Extrinsic and Intrinsic motivation: You may be extrinsically motivated by something such as ideology and public scrutiny to banish unwanted thoughts or you may be intrinsically motivated by your own deep feelings to banish unwanted thoughts.

3) Extrinsic motivation and Ego Depletion: If you resist unwanted thoughts out of extrinsic motivation, then you will have trouble keeping them away if your ego becomes depleted by exerting effort to adhere to extrinsic motivations.

4) Intrinsic motivation and unconscious goal seeking: If the thoughts that you seek to banish are actually in line with intrinsic motivation, then there may be unconscious processes going on that are driving you in the direction of those consciously banished thoughts.

5) Priming effect: When we encounter an external reminder or experience a memory or thought that relates to a goal, either conscious or unconscious, we are more likely to seek that goal.

6) Out of the public eye: If we have worn out our will power on extrinsic motivations, and have been avoiding an intrinsically desirable thought, that thought will come into our mind unbidden. If we are out of the public eye and in a position to act upon that hidden desire, the odds are we will be tempted and might succumb to acting on that thought.

7) Smart people do stupid things: And so, we may find ourselves doing that very thing that we publicly denounced and consciously tried to avoid, much to our surprise and horror.

Then all that is left is for the fulfillment of our hidden desires to become public knowledge. And people are left shaking their heads and saying “How could he be that stupid?” The answer lies in the way the human mind deals with “I should” and “I want”.

Those pesky economic bubbles just seem to keep popping up. Then they pop. Things are calm for a little while and then another bubble comes along. There is all this money that wants a home and a “good” rate of return. Now commodities like foods and oil are bubbling.

There is a government commission called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that is supposed to regulate investment in commodities so that speculators who neither produce nor consume don’t come along and make the prices go crazy. From the US Commodity Exchange Act (CEA)– “Excessive speculation in any commodity under contrasts of sale of such commodities for future deliver…causing sudden or unreasonable fluctuations or unwarranted changes in the prices of such commodity, is an undue and unnecessary burden on interstate commerce in such commodity.” The CEA directs the CFTC to establish such trading limits “as the Commission finds are necessary to diminish, eliminate, or prevent such burden.” Obviously they are not doing their job.
Unfortunately, this commission is a little too friendly with the industry it is supposed to be regulating.

The explosion of “over the counter” futures investment vehicles and trading methods has left any serious regulation far behind. They are exempt from CFTC by a provision insert into legislation by Enron and other large energy companies. (Gone but not forgotten!)

In addition to oil, basic foods such as rice, wheat and corn are being hammered by price increases of up to 100% in the last year driven by rampant speculation.. People can’t eat and commerce is grinding to halt while the speculators are having a ball (and making a lot of money!)

Now food riots are breaking out all over the world. When a family in the third world is spending half their income on food and the food prices double, there is no money left for fuel, medicine, rent, etc. Unless the US and other governments steps in and reasserts regulation of the commodities markets, this mess could bring down the world economy. Worse yet, a lot of people will suffer and some will die to feed the greed of these speculators.

Modern Western intellectual tradition tends to discount the technological capabilities of ancient societies. One of the reasons for this is the fact that very little in the way of hardware or documentation has survived down thru the centuries. Sometimes knowledge was deliberately hidden or destroyed. But every now and then, we stumble across evidence of amazing technical sophistication from long ago.

Batteries in Ancient Baghdad

Jars with copper cylinders and corroded iron rods were discovered in 1936 near Baghdad, Iraq in ruins over 1750 years old. When they were rebuilt and filled with wine, they generated a voltage.

Museums contain copper vessels with a thin coating of silver that appears to have been electroplated. The batteries could have accomplished this.

There are old Egyptian papyri that show a man stepping into a pool with fish that generated a weak electrical current which relieved pain. The batteries may have been used produce pain relief similar to the fish.

Baghdad batteries

Computers in Ancient Greece

About 100 years ago, a few coral encrusted lumps were brought up by sponge divers from a 1st century BC ship wreck in near Crete in the Mediterranean Sea. X-rays revealed that one of the lumps contained 32 gears.

When a detail examination was performed and the function of the geared mechanism simulated, it turned out to be a clever astronomical calculator that could display the phase of the moon and the position of the sun in the Zodiac. It may also have displayed the motion of the planets. It was far beyond the technical abilities that the makers were thought to have possessed.

Kythera

Moving Blocks in Ancient Lebanon

There is a Roman temple at Baalbek, Lebanon that was built on the ruins of a far older structure of colossal stone blocks. These blocks were 14’ by 14’ by 68’ and may weigh up to 2,000 tons. Given all of our modern technology, it would be extremely difficult for us to move that piece of rock today. We have no idea of who carved them or how they moved them from the quarry to the temple location.

Baalbek Stones

Ancient Optics

There is plenty of evidence in museums that indicates many previous civilizations knew about the optical properties of glass lenses. There are ancient writings that have been very hard to translate because the archeologists refused to believe that older cultures which worked glass thousands of years ago could never have noticed how light passing thru glass can magnify the appearance of objects. Ancient records of planets and moon were written before modern astronomy that could only have been known through the use of telescopes. Tiny engravings were done that would have required magnification. Mention is made of devices that must have been primitive glasses to correct vision defects.

Telescopes

Steam Engines in Ancient Egypt

Hero of Alexandria created a crude steam turbine around 130 B.C. It was used to open temple doors. However, the ancients had plenty of slave labor so such devices never became serious energy sources. He also invented a water organ, a wind powered organ, a fire engine and a coin-operated device.

Egyptian Steam Engines

What is easily seen in the historical record if one pays attention begs the question of what other great technological capabilities the ancients had that we have lost knowledge of.

Below the surface

Freud popularized the idea of a powerful unconscious of repressed desired and fears that could override our conscious control. More recently, psychology has developed a theory of sophisticated unconscious processing mechanisms that provide the foundation for our conscious experiences.

Unconscious Mind

There has been a lot of debate about the relationship of the conscious mind to the unconscious mind. The metaphor of a beast and a rider has often been invoked to show the relationship between the two. There is an ancient set of Japanese woodcuts that chronicle the quest for understanding and control of the unconscious as the search for a bull.

Ten Bulls

INTERACTION OF THE CONSCIOUS AND THE UNCONSCIOUS:

So how do the conscious and unconscious minds interact? An chapter in a book entitled “The New Unconscious” contains a section that breaks it down like this:

Multiprocessing: Control and Automatic Processes can Run in Parallel

The conscious mind handles experiences while the unconscious mind goes about the business of maintaining the many subprocesses that are necessary for normal functioning.

Delegation: A Control Process Can Launch an Automatic Process:

You consciously trigger an automatic process. Like tying a shoe or serving a tennis ball, you tell yourself to do something and then get out of the way.

Orienting: An Automatic Process Can Launch A Conscious Process

You are driving along a familiar road and thinking about something else when all of a sudden you come upon an accident and your conscious mind returns to your driving.

Intrusion: An Automatic Process Can Override A Control Process

You are reaching for a pot that has been sitting on the stove but you don’t realize that it is hot. As soon as you touch it, your system yanks your hand back automatically.

Regulation: A Control Process Can Override An Automatic Process

You are driving to your new house but you absent mindedly start to turn down the street that leads to your old house. You catch yourself and continue on the route to your new place.

Automatization: A Control Process Can Be Transformed Into An Automatic Process

You rehearse a golf swing over and over again, paying attention to every movement until you get it right and it becomes automatic.

Disruption: An Automatic Process Can Be Transformed Into A Control Process

You have a bad habit of reacting negatively to any criticism. You work at consciously stopping your automatic reaction and carefully considering and reacting appropriately to feedback.

THE FOUR MINDS:

In the descriptions above, the term “control refers to conscious processes”. In the concepts discussed next, “control” is a more general term that can refer to either conscious or unconscious processes.

Pavlovian Controller:

Fast but inflexible controller of subconscious instincts and conditioned habits.

Goal-Directed Controller:

Slow but flexible controller of conscious consideration and rational decision-making.

Episodic Controller:

Faster but more primitive controller which applies remembered solutions to situations.

Habitual Controller:

Fast subconscious controller that deals with learned behavior that has become automatic.

HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING:

We have all experience the weighing of immediate gratification against delaying satisfaction. The initials SMS and LML were coined for Small-Reward-Sooner vs Larger-Reward-Later as shorthand for these situations. children who are able to delay gratification at grow into adults who have better impulse control in their lives. I have played around with an equation that encapsulates a number of related concepts about time, value, goals, motivation, etc.

M = (I * P)/(E * D)

M = motivation
I = importance
P = probability
E = effort
D = delay

The basic idea is that the importance of the reward and the probability of achieving the goal increase motivation while increasing effort and increasing delay diminish motivation.

A researcher named Ainslie in the book: Breakdown of the Will has uncovered additional information about exactly how this works. He found that we tend to discount future rewards in a hyperbolic curve. In other words, the motivation strength of a reward falls off rapidly at first and then tapers off more gradually.

The power of an immediately available reward is very strong. A near term reward is much weak but a longer term reward is still close to the near term in strength. We often perform these calculations unconsciously. With respect to controlling our impulses, if we can avoid situations that contain the possibility of an immediate gratification of an undesired impulse, we can often deal with near term temptation.

WHAT AM I DOING?

There is a body of research now that shows that the unconscious mind is fully capable of having its own goals and pursuing them outside of your conscious awareness. This pursuit can be powerful, sophisticated, persevering, adaptable and capable of resuming after interruptions. Studies involving patients who have had the connections between the two hemispheres of their brain severed show that people can be motivation to complex action outside of conscious awareness. When they are asked why they acted the way that they did, they fabricated explanations for their actions that were totally false with out being aware of their self-deception.

LAST WORDS

A friend once asked me what words of advice I could give him from my many years of study and experience to share with the son of a friend he was going to visit. He said that I had ten words or less to condense my wisdom. I thought for a moment and then said, “I can do it in two. Be aware.” The unconscious mind is absolutely critical to functioning in the world but it is important to understand what it is up to.

Over the years, I have spent a lot of time pondering the self; both my personal self and the general abstract notion of a self. I realized that identity was more of an activity than a thing. Your “identity” has a lot to do with what you “identify” with. When people are asked to write down some things that identify them, the responses tend to fall into categories such as attributes, activities, associates, possessions, places, abstract principles, etc. The following is a survey of some of the different types of selves we seem to have.

TYPES OF SELVES

Here are a few different types of self concept:

The Conscious Self:

This is the self that you think that you are.

The Unconscious Self:

This is the self of habit and unconscious processes.

The Feared Self:

This is the self that you are afraid that you might become under unfortunate circumstances and/or wrong choices.

The Desired Self:

This is the self that you would like to be and may be striving to become.

The Ought Self:

This is the self that you think you ought to be.

The Presented Self:

This is the self that you consciously construct and present to the world.

The Actual Self:

This is the self that you actually are.

The Remembered Self:

This is the self that you recall being.

The Anticipated Self:

This is the self that you expect to become.

THE REAL SELF?

Thomas Metzinger doesn’t think that you actually have a real self. His idea is that we all have a self model in our heads. We also have a model of the world in our heads. We use these models to navigate through life but get confused when we think that the model self is real in a fundamental sense.

THE INTELLIGENT SELVES:

Howard Gardner has a model of intelligence that is based on the following criteria for each identified type of intelligence:

There must be an identifiable brain area involved.

There must be a standard developmental process.

There must be cross cultural recognition

There must be examples of over and under development.

With these standards, he identified the following types:

Linguistic – this has to do with verbal expression and understanding.

Visual – this has to do with visual perception of color, shape, space, etc.

Musical – this has to do with creating and understanding music.

Bodily – this has to do with the operation of the physical body.

Social – this has to do with social interaction.

Personal – this has to do with understanding and handling one’s own self.

Logical/Mathematical – this has to do with understanding and manipulating abstract patterns.

Systemic – this has to do with understanding the way that things interact in a systemic fashion – global perspective

Naturalistic – this has to do with the appreciating and understanding the natural environment.

I have had a lot of fun over the years thinking about this model. In the context of this post, it occurs to me that we could consider a self for each type of intelligence.

Linguistic Self: This would be a collection of words that you use to define yourself. Primarily abstract and descriptive.

Visual Self: This is your actual visual appearance

Musical Self: This is not so easy to pin down. Would this be the style of music that you identify with?

Body Self: This would be things like your physical capabilities such as skills, range of motion, strength, endurance, etc.

Social Self: This would overlap with the Presented Self mentioned above and the.

Personal Self: This would be who you are to yourself – maybe the Conscious Self mentioned above.

Logical/Mathematical Self: Maybe this has to do with the coherence and consistency of your self concept.

Systemic Self: The degree to which you perceive yourself as a functional system in a world of systems.

Naturalistic Self: Who you are as a member of the ecosystem, interacting with plants and animals.

THE HIERARCHICAL SELF:

J.L. Jolly proposed a model of the world he called the Holotheme – based on a series of hierarchical levels of reality.

His levels are:

Informational – this level deals with information as the basic “stuff” of reality – more primordial than matter-energy-space-time. There are some theories of physics which propose such a level – they call it “pre-geometrical”

Space/Time – this is the curved space-time of Einstein – which he said was more basic than energy.

Energy – this is the realm of the different types of energies and forces.

Matter – this is the periodic table of elements and all of their combinations.

Simple Biology – this level consists of all single cellular creatures.

Complex Biology – this is the level of all multicelled creatures

Social – this is the level of societies of creatures.

Once again, we could consider the self at each level.

The Informational Self would be your portion of the fundamental information. Maybe this is the avenue for some of the paranormal phenomena.

The Space/Time Self would be the space/time that you encompass.

The Energetic Self would be the patterns of energy that are you. The idea of auras and subtle short range interactions fits here.

The Material Self would be all the atoms and molecules in you. They say that every atom in you gets replaced within seven years.

The Simple Biological Self would be all the cells that make you up. It turns out that there are many more independent bacteria in your body than human cells.

The Complex Biological Self is your primate self. An animal among animals.

The Social Self is the person you are to those around you, your roles and responsibilities to others.

THE COMPOSITE SELF:

Everyone models the people they interact with. This helps them anticipate the probable actions and reactions of those they associate with. So you have a different self for everyone who knows you. And each of those selves is a simplified model of you from their perspective. Not only do they use those models to anticipate your probable behavior, they also use those models to influence your probable behavior. Such phrases as “you are better than that”, “that isn’t like you”, “you want to do the right thing, don’t you?”, “you want people to think well of you, don’t you”, etc. illustrate this influence. We cannot help but be affected by all this.

THE INSTITUTIONAL SELF:

Each of us is involved in a variety of institutions. In some, we are only customers and audience member. In others we are workers and in some, we may be leaders. Each of these social roles suggests self structure that is consistent with the institution, its goals, history, traditions, activities, etc. Hopefully, these roles do not conflict in an individual, but often they do.

THE CONCENTRIC SELF:

Each of us has a strong identification with our body. We have a strong identification with family and friends. We have a looser identification with neighbors, co-workers, club members. We have a still lesser identification with people who live in our city, state, nation, etc. Sort of like layers of an onion. We differ from each other in the groups that we identify with and how strong that identification is. In a few, the personal body centered self is most important and all the rest are insignificant. In a few others, all humanity is revered. And in others we call mystics; all of reality becomes part of their sense of self.

THE FRAGMENTED SELF:

I have read a number of books on multiple personalities and it is a really fascinating subject. Often linked to severe childhood abuse, apparently the personality spawns a surrogate self and walls it off like a callous to absorb the abuse. Some people have a few personalities, others have many. Some of the personalities can monitor the experience of the one controlling the body and other personalities just blank out when they are not in control. I have read about cases where allergies, glasses prescriptions, even some aspects of personal appearance change when the personality in control shifts. I have wondered if we don’t all have some degree of differentiation of self and that those with pathological multiples are at one end of a spectrum while those with no differentiation at all are viewed as flat and boring personalities.

THE LAYERED SELF:

Dan McAdams has been working on a theory for 15 years which focuses on the power of narrative in the construction of the self. He postulates 3 la

The Basic Self:

This layer contains the genetics, the basic traits, the unconscious habits that are usually studied in relationship to the self.

The Constructed Self:

This layer is composed of the personal adaptations like the personal goals, the defenses, coping mechanisms, beliefs, values that people use to function in the world.

The Narrative Self;

This is a very interesting idea. He says that each of us constructs a story that makes sense of our life by rearranging memories, perceptions and anticipations into a coherent narrative or “life myth”.

THE INSTITUTIONAL SELF

There are different types of institutions that cover various human activities. Each contains multiple roles for the self.

Family

These are the most common and familiar roles. Each of us can be child, parent, mate, sibling, etc.

Educational

Whether formal or informal, each of us are students who learn and teachers who instruct at some times in our lives.

Economic

We all wind up in the market place sooner or later as buyers and/or seller. And to earn the money needed to do the buying we are workers and/or the boss.

Political

Every community has some sort of political structure and we are followers and leaders.

Religion

Whether devout or casual, most of us participate in some religious activity as either the minister or the parishioner.

Health

As some time in our lives, through illness or injury we are the patient under the care of a healer.

Recreational

All work and no play, etc. We are the audiences and the artists, the teams and the coachs in our “spare” time.

Science

Some of us are drawn to explore nature and/or design and build. We are the experimenters, the engineers, the theoreticians, the technicians,etc.

WRAPPING IT UP:

The self is sort of a “suitcase” concept that contains many different things. There is a concept called self-conguence. It refers to the way in which these different selves relate to each other. The more harmonious and integrated the different selves, the healthier and happier the individual. The more conflicted and confused the different selves, the more stressed and unhappy the individual.

Most people don’t think too much about their “self” unless they have a problem with . After years of considering these different selves, I think that maybe they have a point.